Egypt's military gambit in Libya risks backfiring

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Egypt's military gambit in Libya risks backfiring
On 20 July, Egypt's parliament approved a military deployment to fight what it deemed "criminal militias" and "foreign terrorist groups" on a "western front", showing its preparedness to usher in a new phase of Libya's conflict.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi called US President Donald Trump on the same day to discuss Libya's conflict, claiming that Cairo prefers non-intervention in the country.
"President El-Sisi confirmed Egypt's unwavering strategic position on Libya, which aimed at restoring stability in the country, preserving its national institutions, and preventing further deterioration in Libya's security situation via curbing illegal foreign interference in the Libyan issue," said a spokesperson for the Egyptian president.
Egypt readies for war
Egyptian troops are now organising themselves on the country's border, Al Masry Al Youm reported on Monday, suggesting that Cairo will back up its words over recent weeks with action.
Meanwhile, the UN on Monday warned of a "huge risk" of Libya sparking a greater regional war. Turkey continues supporting the internationally recognised Government of National Accord's (GNA)successful counter-offensive against renegade general Khalifa Haftar's so-called Libyan National Army (LNA), which launched an offensive to capture Tripoli in April 2019.
Haftar has received backing from Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Russia, France and Saudi Arabia – none of whom have renounced their support for the warlord.
Egypt's move had built up for weeks, as GNA forces edged closer towards the oil-rich city of Sirte and the Jufra air base, which serve as a key operations hub for Haftar's backers. In a televised speech on 20 June, Sisi hinted at sending troops to Libya to secure its western border.
Then on 16 July, Egypt warned it would intervene, citing security concerns. In a meeting in Cairo with tribal leaders operating alongside Haftar's so-called Libyan National Army, who invited Egypt to use military action, Sisi said "the red lines that we announced earlier... were basically a call for peace and to put an end to the conflict in Libya."
"But we will not stand idle in the face of any moves that pose a direct threat to our national strategic security on our western borders, especially in light of the increasing military build-up operations in the vicinity of the city of Sirte. Egypt is able to change the military situation quickly and decisively if it wants," added Sisi.
However, when Sisi called Sirte a 'red-line,' observers slammed it as hypocritical, and a further breach of Libya's sovereignty should Cairo proceed, given the city is over 1,000km from Egypt's borders.
Many Egyptians meanwhile expressed their opposition towards the intervention, with the Arabic hashtag for "I did not delegate" spreading across Twitter following Sisi's decision.
Egypt has played an important role in empowering Haftar's forces, seeing his authoritarian military rule as a means of containing perceived security threats on its western border, and has backed his offensive on Tripoli. Along with Saudi Arabia, Cairo also lobbied Trump to support Haftar in April 2019.
Risks of greater conflict
Egypt's concerns, however, transcend Sirte's developments and whoever controls Libya's resources. Should Sirte fall to the GNA, the conflict may drift closer to its western border and create what it perceives as security threats within Egypt.
Meanwhile, two Egyptian officials suggested to Madr Masr that Egypt would only push forward with the military move should Sirte and Jufra fall. While Cairo presents this as a security move, its rivals have reacted harshly, with Libya's Foreign Minister Fathi Bashagha interpreting Cairo's deployment as a declaration of war.
"Egyptian parliament approval of troops deployment outside its western borders is a declaration of war on Libya and violates Arab League and UN charters," Bashagha said on 21 July in a tweet which he later removed. "Foreign forces on Libyan grounds are enemy. WE WILL NOT HESITATE defending our nation's sovereignty, security and freedom."
Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan denounced Egypt's actions as "illegal" and "piratical." Turkey has said it will only accept a ceasefire should Haftar withdraw. However, given Haftar's foreign backers have not entirely ceased their support for him, he will not step down so easily.
With a successful use of militias, proxies and drones, Turkey has enabled the GNA to push back Haftar, despite his tremendous international backing. The threat of Egypt's intervention would not deter it.
For Egypt's critics, its declarations of war are mere posturing to distract Egypt's population from its failures to deter Ethiopia over the river Nile water dispute and its mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Category
Egypt Libya
Tags
libya, egypt, military